The Middle East has long been characterized by its intricate web of alliances, rivalries, and military strategies, where air power plays a pivotal role. Recently, Israel has expressed concerns over Egypt’s bolstering of its air force, particularly with the potential acquisition of advanced Chinese J-10C fighter jets equipped with long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. This development signals a potential shift in the regional balance of power, prompting Israel to reassess its strategic military post.
Regional Air Superiority Contest
Israel’s air force has historically been a cornerstone of its defense strategy, famously demonstrated during the Six-Day War of 1967 with Operation Focus, where the Israeli Air Force (IAF) effectively neutralized the Egyptian Air Force on the ground. Since then, Israel has maintained air superiority through technological advantages, primarily supplied by the United States, including state-of-the-art F-35 stealth fighters and advanced missile defense systems.
Egypt, on the other hand, has been modernizing its military capabilities, partly in response to regional security threats like the insurgency in Sinai and the broader geopolitical landscape. The Egyptian Air Force, while numerically superior in terms of aircraft, has traditionally lagged behind Israel in terms of technology and combat effectiveness. However, recent developments suggest a possible narrowing of this gap.
The Egyptian army has increased its military investments with China in recent years in response to the close military ties between Israel and the US. The US threatened to sanction Egypt if Cairo goes ahead with its planned purchase of the Russian built Sukhoi Su-35 super flanker fighter jet.
Egypt had also looked towards procuring 24 Eurofighter Typhoon multirole jets, 24 M346 jet trainers, and a surveillance satellite from Italy. However, that deal was also scuttled due to Egypt’s human rights record.
Subsequently, in 2022, the U.S. then offered F-15 fighter jets to Egypt to kill it’s Su-35 acquisition plans. Unsurprisingly, Israel was keen on Egypt getting the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter jets, and even tried to persuade the United States to approve the sale of the aircraft to Cairo, as part of Jerusalem’s efforts to improve relations between Cairo and Washington.
In 2015, Egypt signed a contract with Dassault Aviation to purchase 24 Rafale fighter jets, marking the first sale of these advanced aircraft to a foreign country. This initial deal was followed by another agreement in 2021 for an additional 30 Rafale jets, bringing the total number to 54. This acquisition makes the Egyptian Air Force the second-largest operator of Rafale jets in the world, after the French Air Force.
The Rafale jets are stationed at Gebel el-Basur Air Base in Cairo, where they play a crucial role in enhancing Egypt’s air defense and combat capabilities. The deal also includes a €240 million contract for equipment and munitions from Safran Electronics and Defense, as well as missile-maker MBDA.
The Egyptian Air Force is considering the possibility of acquiring Chinese J-10C and J-31 fighter jets to modernize its fleet and replace American combat aircraft.
Besides aerial assets, the country’s surviving Dassault Mirage 2000s (of 20 originally delivered in 1986-88) have recently received Emirati Al Tariq glide bombs, and may still retain AS30 air-to-surface missiles (ASMs).
The Al Tariq has also been integrated on Egypt’s Lockheed Martin F-16Cs – at least on the most recent Block 52 aircraft.
Egypt’s Chinese J-10 Fighter jets
Reports in Israeli media have highlighted growing concerns within Tel Aviv’s defense and security circles over Egypt’s potential acquisition of advanced Chinese J-10C fighter jets, particularly if they are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles. These missiles, known for their extended range of 200 to 300 kilometers, could significantly boost Egypt’s aerial combat capabilities and alter the regional air power balance.
The Chinese J-10C, as a fourth-generation multirole combat aircraft, boasts advanced weaponry that enables it to stand toe-to-toe with the latest Western fighter jets. Equipped with the PL-10 missile, a short-range air-to-air missile developed by China, the J-10C enhances Egypt’s air combat capabilities significantly.
According to the Israeli defense website Nziv, Egypt’s interest in the J-10C forms part of a broader strategy to modernize its air force and diversify its military suppliers beyond traditional Western partners. This follows Egypt’s successful procurement of French Rafale fighter jets, the Russian Su-35 (with some deliveries still uncertain due to geopolitical factors), American F-16s, and the MiG-29M.
The J-10C and PL-15: A Game Changer?
The potential acquisition by Egypt of J-10C fighters from China, if equipped with PL-15 missiles, introduces a new variable. The PL-15 missile is noted for its extended range and advanced targeting capabilities, potentially allowing Egyptian fighters to engage Israeli aircraft from beyond visual range (BVR), something that was not previously within Egypt’s capabilities with their largely downgraded F-16 fleet.
This advancement could challenge Israel’s aerial dominance, particularly since the PL-15 is considered superior in range to the American AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, which are part of Israel’s current arsenal. Posts on X have highlighted discussions around this, with some users pointing out that while Egypt’s air defense might be obsolete against fifth-generation jets, the addition of advanced missiles could alter the dynamics of any aerial engagement.
Reports suggest that Egypt might receive the PL-15E variant, an export version of the missile with a reduced range of 150 kilometers, compared to the standard PL-15’s 200-300 kilometers used by the Chinese military. Despite the reduced range, the PL-15E would still provide a substantial enhancement to Egypt’s air-to-air combat capabilities, exceeding the range of existing missiles in the region.
Israeli analysts also point out that the presence of the J-10CE9001 aircraft at the Zhuhai Air Show indicates that China may already be preparing units for export, possibly including Egypt as a buyer. If confirmed, this deal would mark a milestone in Egypt’s efforts to strengthen its air force with advanced multi-role fighter jets capable of competing with the latest Western and Russian aircraft.
Israeli concerns are not just about the J-10C acquisition but also the integration of the PL-15 missile into the Egyptian Air Force. Equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, this missile is designed for beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat and could allow Egyptian fighter jets to engage enemy aircraft from much greater distances.
Israel has long maintained air superiority in the region, largely due to its access to advanced American-made weaponry, including F-35 stealth fighters and sophisticated air defense systems. However, the introduction of the PL-15 missile to Egypt’s arsenal could challenge Israel’s dominance in aerial engagements, as the PL-15 outperforms the American AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has a shorter effective range.
Israel keen on maintaining qualitative military edge (QME)
The report noted that Washington and Paris have historically refrained from providing Egypt with long-range air-to-air missiles to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). In past arms deals, Egypt received French MICA and American AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, which have considerably shorter ranges than the PL-15.
Israeli defense officials have previously lobbied against supplying Egypt with weapons that could challenge Israeli air superiority. In the case of the Su-35, the U.S. exerted significant diplomatic pressure to prevent Russia from delivering the aircraft to Egypt. A similar stance might be taken regarding the J-10C deal, though China’s increasing military cooperation with Egypt could limit Washington’s influence. Although, Israel is keen on Egypt getting the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter jets instead, and is trying to persuade the United States to approve the sale of the aircraft to Cairo.
While there has been no official confirmation from Cairo regarding the purchase of the J-10C, growing speculation has already triggered discussions within Israeli defense circles about the long-term implications. If Egypt integrates these fighter jets into its air force, it could alter the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, especially in scenarios involving air superiority conflicts.
Analysts suggest that the potential acquisition of the J-10C and PL-15 missiles reflects Egypt’s broader strategy of military diversification. This approach aims to reduce reliance on Western suppliers, increase strategic autonomy, and enhance deterrence capabilities amid evolving regional security dynamics.
Egypt has also previously procured a variety of Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as the CH4B and Wing Loong 1. It also initiated local production of the ASN-209 reconnaissance UAV and assembled significant numbers of K-8 Karakorum training aircraft domestically.
An enhanced Egyptian air force could potentially lead to a scenario where Israel’s freedom to conduct air operations, particularly over contested territories like Gaza, could be challenged. This is particularly pertinent given recent conflicts and the ongoing need to maintain air superiority for both defense and tactical operations.
Moreover, the integration of such advanced technology might not only be about direct combat capabilities but also about signaling Egypt’s intent to play a more assertive role in regional politics. This could affect Israel’s strategic planning, especially in scenarios involving multi-front engagements or in the context of broader Middle Eastern alliances.
For Israel, any change in the air power equation is approached with caution. The Israeli Air Force continues to upgrade its fleet with F-35I Adir stealth fighters and F-15EX aircraft to maintain its aerial dominance. However, Egypt’s access to advanced missile technology could prompt Israel to advance its countermeasures and air combat tactics.
As military procurement trends evolve, the coming months may reveal more about Egypt’s defense plans and whether the potential acquisition of the J-10C will materialize. If confirmed, this development is likely to prompt diplomatic discussions between Egypt, China, Israel, and Western powers regarding the shifting balance of military power in the region.
The relationship between Egypt and Israel, normalized by the 1979 peace treaty, has seen various phases of warmth and tension. Despite closer cooperation in areas like security in Sinai and energy projects, the prospect of Egypt enhancing its military capabilities, especially in ways that could be perceived as threatening to Israel, might strain this relationship.
The sentiment on platforms like X shows a mix of concern and analysis from observers, suggesting that while Egypt’s military advancements might not immediately lead to direct conflict, they do raise discussions about the balance of power and potential future confrontations.
What’s Next?
The potential for Egypt to acquire J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles has not yet materialized into a confirmed deal, but the mere rumor of it has already stirred strategic reevaluation in Israel. Should this transaction proceed, both countries will likely engage in a new phase of military diplomacy and possibly arms control discussions to manage this shift in capabilities.
For Israel, this might mean a push for further technological upgrades or strategic partnerships to maintain its qualitative military edge. For Egypt, it could be a step towards reclaiming a more significant role in regional military dynamics, not just as a counterbalance to Israel but also in relation to other Middle Eastern powers.
