The Egyptian Navy is undergoing a significant period of capability growth, particularly in its naval warfare capabilities. As part of its modernization efforts, Egypt has been seeking to replace its aging Romeo-class submarines with more advanced models. Historically, France, Germany, and Italy have been the primary beneficiaries of Egypt’s naval procurement orders.
Modernization Efforts and Submarine Acquisition
Egypt’s journey towards modernizing its submarine fleet began in earnest in 2011 when it signed a contract with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for two Type 209/1400mod submarines. This contract was later expanded in 2015 to include two additional submarines. The first submarine, S41, was delivered to the Egyptian Navy in December 2016, followed by S42 in August 2017, S43 in April 2020, and the final unit, S44, in July 2021. These acquisitions significantly enhanced the capabilities of the Egyptian Navy.
Strategic Response to Regional Challenges
Egypt’s investment in a modern submarine fleet can be considered a strategic response to regional challenges and threats. Submarine warfare has traditionally been a weak point for Cairo, as evidenced during the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War, where Egyptian and Israeli warships attempted to intimidate each other without actual engagement.
Israeli Concerns and German Rethink
Recently, Israel’s extensive lobbying efforts have led Berlin to reconsider the sale of two Type-209 attack submarines to Egypt. According to the German weekly Der Spiegel, although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Ministry had been aware of the deal since the previous year, senior government officials in Jerusalem raised concerns in Berlin earlier this month. They cited Israeli security concerns and the need to preserve Israel’s military edge in the Middle East.
German Government’s Response
The German government has agreed to reconsider the deal and discuss it again in the Federal Security Council. The council, whose meetings are secret, would withdraw its previous approval if the Egyptian government pursues a policy hostile to Israel. German Chancellor Angela Merkel personally assured Netanyahu of this during a conversation following the November meeting of the Federal Security Council.
On November 28, Germany’s Federal Security Council had approved the deal, in which Germany would sell Cairo two Type-209 attack submarines. The German government had presumed that these submarines, being less efficient than the Dolphin-class submarines Berlin provides to Israel, would not pose a significant concern for Israel. However, Israel’s lobbying efforts have prompted Berlin to reassess the situation.
Israeli Lobbying and Diplomatic Efforts
The planned sale of the Type-209 submarines to Egypt has caused friction between Israel and Germany. Israeli media reported that Jerusalem sought to torpedo the deal. On Sunday, Israel’s lobbying efforts appeared to bear fruit when German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, during a visit to Jerusalem, promised that Berlin “will acknowledge Israel’s security interests” before making a final decision on the Egyptian deal.
Jerusalem also reportedly demanded to have a say in all future German arms exports to the region, a request that Berlin found unacceptable as it would constitute an end of German sovereignty in military issues.
Egypt’s Naval Strategy
On April 19, 2017, during the commissioning of the Type-209/1400 (S-41) submarine, Rear Admiral Khaled Hassan Said, Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Navy, stated that the Navy was working to enhance its combat capacities to ensure full control over Egypt’s coasts and safeguard its territorial and economic waters.
Regional Implications
As Egypt builds up its submarine warfare capability, it has attracted attention from neighboring countries, particularly Israel. In 2017, Cmdr. (res.) Eyal Pinko of the Israeli Navy noted that the advanced weapon systems on board Egypt’s submarines could pose a significant threat to the Israeli Navy offshore, deep under the surface, and even on land.
Meanwhile, Egypt is considering new submarine acquisitions amidst growing naval capabilities. The potential contenders for this new submarine class include France, Germany, and South Korea.
The German government’s decision to reconsider the sale of Type-209 attack submarines to Egypt following Israeli pressure highlights the complex dynamics of regional security and international arms deals. As Egypt continues to modernize its naval capabilities, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains intricately balanced, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the security concerns of all parties involved.