The Egyptian Navy, amidst a significant period of capability growth, is seeking to replace its aging Romeo-class submarines, marking a pivotal moment in its naval procurement strategy. Historically, France, Germany, and Italy have been the primary beneficiaries of Egypt’s naval orders. However, the entry of South Korean bidders could disrupt the long-standing naval procurement partnership between Egypt and France.
Historical Context and Current Fleet
The roots of the Egyptian Navy’s modern submarine force can be traced back to the late 1960s, when the Soviet Union was its main defense equipment supplier. During that period, the Soviet Union delivered two Project 613 Whiskey-class and six Project 633 Romeo-class conventional submarines (SSKs) to Egypt. The severance of relations with the Soviet Union in the 1970s posed significant challenges, particularly in terms of sustaining the Romeo SSKs due to the lack of guaranteed spares and support services.
To address these challenges, Egypt turned to China in the early 1980s, acquiring four Type 033 ES5A submarines, the Chinese version of the Romeo SSK. However, these submarines were not without issues, prompting Egypt to undertake a refit and modernization program. By 1988, the US had become a major supplier of Egyptian defense needs, and a US$116 million contract was signed with Tacoma Boat for the refit of the Romeo submarines. This upgrade included the capability to fire UGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Mk 37 torpedoes, as well as new sonar and fire control systems.
Transition to Modern Submarines
Despite the anticipation of acquiring a new submarine class in the 1990s, it was not until 2011 that new submarine procurement materialized. Egypt signed a contract with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) for two Type 209/1400mod submarines. The scope of this contract was expanded in 2015 to include two additional submarines. The first unit, S41, was handed over to the Egyptian Navy in December 2016, followed by S42 in August 2017, S43 in April 2020, and the final unit, S44, in July 2021. The introduction of the Type 209/1400mod submarines significantly bolstered Egyptian naval capabilities. However, the Romeo boats continued to operate, highlighting the necessity for a replacement.
The Quest for a New Submarine Class
The Egyptian Navy faces the dual challenge of generating a realistic operational requirement and developing a strategy for technology transfer, which would enable local production and long-term support of future submarines. The potential contenders for this new submarine class include France, Germany, and South Korea.
France: A Long-Standing Partner
France has been a major supplier of defense equipment to Egypt, including two Mistral-class LHDs and a FREMM-class frigate, Tahya Misr. Egypt also signed a contract with Naval Group for four Gowind 2500 corvettes, with three being built at the Alexandria Shipyard in Egypt after a successful technology transfer program. The Barracuda-class submarine, which emerged victorious in Australia’s Attack-class submarine requirement in 2016 before the program’s cancellation in 2021, is a strong contender. Recently, the Barracuda was selected for the Royal Netherlands Navy Orka-class submarine program, with a contract signing in September 2024.
Naval Group envisions the Barracuda-class as a scalable family of solutions tailored to meet diverse customer requirements. Its characterization as an ‘expeditionary submarine’ suggests a larger displacement and extended operational range, potentially covering a much larger area than current Egyptian submarines.
Germany: The Incumbent Supplier
As the incumbent submarine supplier, TKMS remains a formidable competitor. Beyond the Type 209/1400mod submarines, TKMS signed a contract in 2018 to supply Egypt with four MEKO A-200EN frigates, with three built in Germany and one at the Alexandria Shipyard. The lead unit, Al-Aziz, was commissioned in November 2022, followed by Al-Qahhar in May 2023. The third unit, Al-Qadeer, was handed over in December 2023, and the final unit, Al-Jabbar, is scheduled for delivery in October 2025.
Both Naval Group and TKMS have demonstrated their capability to successfully deliver technology transfer programs to Egypt, a critical factor in meeting the submarine program requirements.
South Korean Bidders: New Entrants
The Egyptian requirement, estimated to be for four submarines, has attracted new bidders from South Korea, including Hanwha Ocean and Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI). These entrants bring additional competition to the tender, offering innovative solutions and potentially favorable terms for technology transfer and financing.
Thirty-five attack submarines acquired from major suppliers have sailed with African navies, only a handful of countries in Africa own or have operated submarines. Our research shows that regarding export successes, the Soviet Union/ Russia exported 69% of the total submarines in Africa, Germany 22%, and France just 9%. Out of these, 15 are retired, decommissioned, or scrapped. Another four have exceeded their service life, and two are currently on order.
Although, about one-third of African countries are landlocked, maritime transport remains the main gateway to the global marketplace. Africa’s international trade relies heavily on shipping and ports. The continent accounts for about 2.5% of exports and 3% of imports in 2020 of world merchandise trade by value.
Key Considerations for Egypt
In deciding on its future submarine acquisitions, Egypt will consider several key factors:
- Technology Transfer: The extent to which suppliers can offer technology transfer will be crucial, enabling local production and sustainable long-term support.
- Weapon Packages: The capabilities of the weapon packages provided with the submarines will be a significant determinant in the selection process.
- Financing: The availability and terms of financing will play a pivotal role in Egypt’s final decision.
Meanwhile, Russia is offering its Amur 950 class attack submarine for African navies. The Russian-made Amur 950 attack submarine is designed to destroy enemy submarines, surface ships, vessels, land targets and conduct reconnaissance missions. Armed with a total of 16 missiles, torpedoes, and mines which comprises of 4 x 533 mm torpedo tubes, and 10 vertical missile launchers.