The Sahel region, stretching across the breadth of Africa south of the Sahara Desert, has long been a focal point for geopolitical interest and intervention. Historically, countries in this region have maintained close ties with former colonial powers, particularly France. However, recent shifts in the global political landscape have seen an increasing number of Sahel states reassess their foreign alliances, leading to a gradual distancing from France and Western nations in favor of closer relations with Russia and China.
France is planning to reduce its military presence in West and Central Africa to around 600 troops in line with President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to limit the French military footprint in the region.
First, in the Summer of 2020, President Macron had said that France would reassess and restructure its Barkhane force by the end of the year. The troops drawdown will make France focus on its Special Operations Task Force “Takuba” commitments.
And then in February 2023, Macron announced “noticeable reduction” of French troop presence in Africa, as anti-French sentiment is running high in some former colonies and countries like Russia are vying for greater influence.
According to a plan currently under discussion with African partners, France is planning to drastically reduce its so-called “pre-positioned” forces in Africa.
France will keep only around 100 troops in Gabon in Central Africa, down from 350 today and around 100 in Senegal, in West Africa, down from 350.
Paris plans to keep around 100 troops in Ivory Coast on the southern coast of West Africa – down from 600 troops today – and around 300 personnel in Chad in north-central Africa, down from 1,000 now.
The reduced presence could be periodically expanded based on the needs of local partners, the three sources said.
Until two years ago, in addition to around 1,600 forces pre-deployed in West Africa and Gabon, France had over 5,000 troops in the Sahel region of Africa as part of the Barkhane anti-jihadist operation.
But it has been gradually pushed out by the juntas that came to power in Mali in 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and Niger in 2023.
All the three countries have now concluded security agreements with Russia, which has been seeking to expand its footprint on the continent.
Chad, ruled by Mahamat Idriss Deby, the son of Idriss Deby Itno who was president for over 30 years, is the last Sahel country to host French soldiers.
Meanwhile, the French army plans to set up a Paris-based command dedicated to Africa this summer. The French army is not ruling out “pooling” its bases with Americans or European partners, the chief of staff of France’s armed forces, General Thierry Burkhard has said.
According to Burkhard, the tighter new structure will make it possible to maintain relations with local military authorities, “gather intelligence” and “pursue operational partnerships”, among other tasks.
Instead of combat missions, French soldiers will essentially provide training and capabilities to partner countries, at their request.
Historical Context
The legacy of colonialism has profoundly shaped the political and economic landscapes of the Sahel. Post-independence, many Sahel states retained close ties with France, evident in continued military cooperation, economic dependencies, and political influence. France, for its part, has maintained a significant military presence in the region, primarily through operations like Barkhane, aimed at combating jihadist insurgencies.
Motivations for Realignment
- Perceived Failures of Western Engagement:
Many Sahel states have grown disillusioned with Western intervention, particularly France’s military operations. Despite years of French military presence, the security situation in the Sahel has continued to deteriorate, with jihadist groups gaining strength and territory. This perceived ineffectiveness has led to growing anti-French sentiment and calls for alternative approaches to security and development. - Sovereignty and Independence:
The desire for true sovereignty and independence is a powerful motivator. Leaders in the Sahel are increasingly advocating for policies that reflect national interests free from foreign influence. Cutting ties with former colonial powers symbolizes a break from the past and an assertion of national dignity and self-determination. - Economic Opportunities:
China and Russia offer substantial economic incentives that appeal to Sahel states. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promises investment in critical infrastructure, which is desperately needed in the Sahel. Meanwhile, Russia provides military support and training, often with fewer political strings attached compared to Western aid. These partnerships present lucrative opportunities for economic growth and military strengthening. - Geopolitical Shifts:
The global balance of power is shifting, with China and Russia asserting themselves as major players on the international stage. Sahel states, recognizing these shifts, are positioning themselves to benefit from new alliances that offer alternative sources of support and investment.
Implications of the Realignment
- Security Dynamics:
The withdrawal of Western forces, particularly French troops, could create a vacuum that may be filled by Russian military contractors and advisors. This shift could alter the dynamics of the fight against insurgency in the region. While Russia’s military support may bolster local capabilities, it also risks entangling Sahel states in broader geopolitical conflicts. - Economic Transformation:
Increased Chinese investment could lead to significant economic transformation in the Sahel. Infrastructure projects, such as roads, railways, and energy facilities, could spur development and economic growth. However, this also raises concerns about debt dependency and the long-term sustainability of such investments. - Diplomatic Relations:
Aligning with Russia and China may strain relations with Western countries, potentially affecting aid, trade, and diplomatic support. The Sahel states will need to navigate these new dynamics carefully to avoid alienating traditional allies while maximizing the benefits of new partnerships. - Internal Politics:
The shift in alliances could impact internal political dynamics within Sahel states. Governments may use these new relationships to bolster their legitimacy and address domestic challenges. However, there is also the risk of increased authoritarianism and reduced accountability, particularly if Russian and Chinese models of governance influence local politics.
Future Trajectory
The future trajectory of the Sahel’s foreign alliances will depend on several factors, including the effectiveness of new partnerships, the evolving security situation, and the broader geopolitical landscape. If China and Russia can deliver tangible benefits, such as improved security and economic growth, their influence in the Sahel is likely to grow. Conversely, if these partnerships fail to meet expectations or lead to negative consequences, Sahel states may once again reassess their foreign relations.
